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Tuesday 20 December 2011

Currency market overreacting to debt payment



 












KARACHI: The outlook for the current account balance has been projected by the State Bank as a source of concern. However, it has expressed hope on account of strong worker remittances and possible gains on oil imports as global recession may exert pressure on energy prices.
The SBP`s annual report issued on Monday noted that the current high account deficit was a temporary situation. It explained that the deficit of the first four months of this fiscal year at $1.6 billion is because of oil payments, a seasonal pause in remittances in September 2011 and an engineered shortage of hard currency in the parallel foreign currency market.
“The market is overreacting to Pakistan`s foreign debt payments in 2011-12,” said the State Bank, adding that one must realise that while repayments on the IMF`s $8.9 billion Standby Agreement will start from this fiscal year, outflows are only $1.4 billion and are scheduled for the latter half of the fiscal year”.
The annual report said Pakistan`s economy managed to grow by 2.4 per cent in FY11 while estimated 6.6 million of Pakistan`s labour force was out of work for 2 to 3 months, and capital stock worth $2.6 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) was lost.
The report said the overall growth in services was 4.1 per cent in FY11, which was lower than the target of 4.7 per cent, but this still accounted for 90 per cent of real GDP growth.
It said the food inflation was particularly hard hit, posting a sharp 21.3 per cent year-on-year increase in September 2010, compared with 10.4 per cent in the same month a year earlier food inflation remained about 19 per cent in the first half of FY11.
The financing of the fiscal deficit was, and still remains, challenging, said the report adding that with a decline in external funding following the suspension of the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), the government had little choice but to rely increasingly on domestic sources.
“During FY11, the government borrowed Rs1.1 trillion from domestic sources, which accounted for 91.0 per cent of the fiscal deficit,” said the report.
The report said the government`s response to the energy shortfall was threefold: rental power projects (RPPs) were commissioned to increase generation capacity; the government released Rs120 billion to resolve the interagency circular debt problem, which was undermining energy production; and electricity tariffs were increased to pass on the higher cost of production.
“In spite of these measures, the overall situation remained largely unchanged,” said the report.
The SBP said commissioning RPPs to increase generation capacity was misplaced, as Pakistan is operating well below its installed capacity due to the circular debt problem.
“One must also note that the Rs120 billion injected by the government (to restart the funding of furnace oil) only happened in May 2011. In effect, for most of FY11, the acute problems in the power sector went unaddressed.”
In terms of what to expect in FY12, especially within the context of a global recession, the State Bank said the bulk of Pakistan`s exports are low-end textiles, which are not likely to experience a fall in demand as they are income inelastic.
If anything, Pakistan`s export receipts may be hit harder by the price effect if cotton prices continue to soften. However, the negative price effect may not be as pronounced going forward, as current international prices are where they were before the spike started in mid-2010.
With the US Dollar viewed universally as the safest currency (despite serious economic challenges facing the US), the SBP said US dollar will not lose ground against other hard currencies.

KSE 100-share index gains 255 points, ends at 11,338


KARACHI: The Karachi Stock Exchange's (KSE) benchmark 100-share index ended 2.30 percent, or 255.01 points, higher at 11,338.05. Turnover rose sharply to 77.8 million shares from only 36.45million traded on Monday.

Stocks gained sharply on Tuesday as investors accumulated shares at attractive levels after sharp falls in the index in recent days, dealers said.

Despite gains, the KSE-100 index is still down about 2 percent this month.

"I think with all the political turmoil and foreign selling in recent weeks, the market had reached an oversold situation and an upwards correction was due, which we saw today," said Ashraf Zakaria, a dealer at brokers Ali Hussain Rajabali and Co.

Dealers said there were talks in the market regarding the resolution of a long-standing capital gains tax on stock investments, which also helped the sentiment.

"These market talks, coupled with the attractive prices, provided a perfect recipe for a bull-run in the market today, "said Zakaria. (Reuters)
 

Punjab government launches crackdown against use of substandard gas kits


All DCOs to monitor check and seal public transport vehicles using substandard gas cylinders.
MULTAN: The Punjab government has effectively launched a crackdown against the use of substandard CNG kits and cylinders in public transport vehicles to ensure the safety of the citizens.
The District Coordination Officers (DCOs) were assigned the duty of monitoring a check on all public transport and were ordered to immediately unplug substandard CNG kits and cylinders from the vehicles on finding them being used.
Sources familiar with the matter told The Express Tribune that these instructions were given by Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif to avoid any further incidents of gas explosions in the future.
The Punjab government has also been planning to completely ban the use of CNG cylinders in public transport or put a compulsory check before installation.
According to sources, more than 200 public transport vehicles in Multan, Khanewal and Dera Ghazi Khan were completely sealed and their gas cylinders were removed after they were found using substandard gas kits.
The local officials have been asked to cooperate with the police in helping them to maintain the law and order situation of the province.
DCO Khanewal Rashid Mehmood told The Express Tribune that all vehicles of public transport were put under a detailed examination system and after scrutiny, the ones with poor quality installations have been stopped from plying.
“The check is not meant to disturb transporters as we are aware of their reservations, but it is to ensure the safety of the passengers,” said DCO Dera Ghazi Khan Iftikhar Ali Sahu while saying that the police have also been dealing with the problems of local transporters.
All vehicles have been handed back to their owners with intimation about precautionary measures.
The citizens and passengers have appreciated the step taken by the Punjab government and have demanded that the team examining the CNG cylinders should maintain the complete quality control level.
The Regional Transport Authority (RTA) secretaries of each district have been made in-charge of the operations in their respective districts on the instructions of the DCOs.
The passengers say that even though people are facing problems because of the checking system, especially those who have to travel to rural areas, but this step was necessary.

Faltering attempts: Loopholes mar govt tax-collection efforts



The government’s efforts to broaden the tax base and bring in more people into the tax net is off to a bad start, with the vast majority not filing returns and the few who do are claiming exempt status on grounds that their income is derived from agriculture or remittances.
Of the 300,708 people who have thus far been served tax notices, only 37,000 (or about 12.4%) have submitted tax returns, of which about 60% claim that their income is from tax exempt sources such as agriculture or remittances, said Salman Siddique, chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue.
The government has begun a drive to add more people into the income tax net by identifying 700,000 potential high income individuals who do not file their tax returns. In a population of around 180 million, only about two million people are registered active income taxpayers.
Of the 60%, about 54% have declared agriculture as their source of income while 6% declared remittances as the source of their income.
“To cross check, the federal government has decided to share with the provinces the details of those respondents who have claimed that their source of income is agriculture,” said Siddique.
The remaining 40% paid a paltry amount of a combined Rs453 million, said the FBR chairman. Last year, 26,708 individuals paid Rs356 million in income tax while another 10,181 persons deposited a mere Rs97 million during the first five months of the current fiscal year, he added.
Nonetheless, Siddique claimed progress on the audit front, stating that the withholding tax audit has already been initiated and that the government expects to collect around Rs14 billion in December, out of the Rs27 billion it generated in demands. Of the taxes currently subject to litigation, the FBR expects to collect Rs1.2 billion this month.
As the government attempts to meet the Rs1,952 billion tax collection target – which Siddique says is still achievable – the authorities are also planning to close several loopholes.
One of the biggest problems is the adjustments people claim on their sales tax returns, which are currently collected on a value-added basis but do not require any identification of the counter-party against whose taxes the person is claiming an exemption. “To plug the loophole, from January no input adjustment would be given without disclosing the computerised national identity card number by the claimant,”

24-hr CNG closure to hit Sindh


KARACHI: All CNG stations in Sindh including Karachi will remain closed for 24 hours, starting from 9 am on Wednesday, Geo News reported Tuesday.

According to Chairman of CNG Stations Owners Association Malik Khuda Baksh, CNG stations would remain closed from Wednesday morning at 9 am until Thursday for 24 hours. He said the decision was taken after the association members met Sui Southern officials.

The government has implemented countrywide gas load management program including industrial sector following severe gas shortage in winter season.